MD&M West 2026 Keynote

AI Without the Hype

Real results in manufacturing. A practical playbook for the people who make everything in our lives.

Lauren Dunford · CEO & Co-Founder, Guidewheel · February 3, 2026

Companion resource from the MD&M West opening keynote — built with AI in 17 minutes by one non-coder. Everything from the session — playbook, stats, tools — in one place to share with your team.

guidewheel.com · info@guidewheel.com · Booth 4515

AI amplifies what you already have.

Good or bad. Build the right foundation, and AI becomes a force multiplier. Skip that step, and it becomes very expensive theater.

“I have never felt this much behind as a programmer… some powerful alien tool was handed around except it comes with no manual and everyone has to figure out how to hold it and operate it.”
— Andrej Karpathy, founding member of OpenAI, former Director of AI at Tesla

Right now, we are all learners. Getting that foundation right has never mattered more — especially for those making the things that support human health. Sutures, pacemakers, heart stents, lifesaving medicines — all made by hard-working teams on production floors. Where and how we make those things has never been more important.

If we can't make, we break.

This playbook is drawn from 400+ manufacturers, ranging from mid-market up to some of the world's biggest companies like Johnson & Johnson, Hershey, U.S. Steel, and GE Aerospace. Three moves that consistently drive results: problem, strategy, people.

Real or Hype?

Eleven AI claims — some about AI broadly, some about manufacturing specifically. Most of the jaw-dropping stuff is real. And a lot of what the industry is selling you is hype.

Real

GitHub, Google, and others have confirmed this. Software engineering — one of the highest-skilled professions — is already fundamentally changed. This is happening NOW, not in five years.

Real

Multiple companies shipping or piloting household humanoid robots in 2026. The pace of change in physical AI is accelerating faster than most people realize.

Real

Simulated training environments let surgical robots compress decades of learning. The implications for med device and surgical tools are enormous.

Real

Preventative maintenance at the molecular level. AI analyzing cooling patterns in the mold to catch defects no human eye or traditional QC would find. A fracture that won't appear for two years — detected at the point of manufacture.

Mostly Hype

There are a handful — mostly in China — but even those still have people on-site. They're the exception, not the model. The real value of AI in manufacturing is giving your team superpowers, and the human aspects of manufacturing are still critically important.

Real

Across standardized benchmarks in reasoning, math, coding, writing, and creative tasks, frontier AI models now outperform the average human — and in many cases, the 90th percentile. This isn't narrow pattern-matching. These models demonstrate general capability across domains. The implications for knowledge work in every industry are profound.

Real with the right data.

AI anomaly detection is catching failures across steel mills, bottling lines, and production floors today. One Fortune 500 manufacturer avoided potential downtime events costing $47K/minute. But this only works when the machine data is clean and continuous. Without that foundation, AI is guessing.

Hype — and potentially dangerous.

Manufacturing is the #1 ransomware target for four consecutive years. 75% of OT attacks start as IT breaches that cross into operational technology. Connecting PLCs to AI means connecting your control systems to your network — dramatically expanding your attack surface. The FDA released new OT cybersecurity guidance in 2025 specifically warning against this. Non-invasive, air-gapped approaches exist that read machine data without any access to control systems or OT networks — giving you the data foundation for AI without the cybersecurity risk.

Real

AI agents now have their own social network with channels like m/blesstheirhearts (sweet stories about their human owners), m/aita (asking if they were wrong for refusing a human's tasks), and m/totallyhumans (a satirical channel where agents roleplay as humans). The point isn't whether this is cute or creepy — it's that autonomous AI agents are already interacting, collaborating, and developing emergent behaviors. This is happening now.

Real

Your best people's expertise is locked in their heads. AI can capture patterns, codify best practices, and guide less experienced operators toward expert-level decisions. This is especially critical right now: 25% of the manufacturing workforce is over 55, and 2.1 million manufacturing jobs are projected to go unfilled by 2030.

Hype

Some of the best results come from a single manufacturing professional building a custom app in hours using today's AI tools. A professional in North Carolina built a scheduling app and his own anomaly detection system — no data science degree required. The barrier isn't talent or budget. It's having the right data foundation to build on.

What's Actually Possible Right Now

Not in five years. Not in a lab. Right now, with tools available to every person in this room.

“If you're not willing to learn, nothing can help you.
If you're determined to learn, nothing can stop you.”
— Zig Ziglar

AI Use Cases Driving Real Results

AI as Coach

The #1 use case that surprises people. Hilton is using AI to coach teams on empathy — safe, zero-risk learning environment, real results. In manufacturing: coaching shift leads on tough conversations, root cause analysis, and prep for reviews.

Coding Partner

30-50% of all code is now AI-generated. Manufacturing professionals — not software engineers — are using tools like Claude and Cursor to build custom apps on top of their own data. The person closest to the problem can now build the solution.

Talent Mobility

Companies like Salesforce are using AI to identify transferable skills across their workforce — matching people to internal roles they didn't know they were qualified for. Imagine applying this to your manufacturing workforce.

Product R&D

AI is accelerating product development cycles — from formulation to testing to market. In one case, AI-assisted R&D achieved 70% of the creative output with dramatically faster iteration cycles.

AI as Thought Partner

Ask AI something real from your world. Changeover troubleshooting, CAPA investigation starting points, shift report analysis. These tools are available to every person in this room, right now, for free.

The flipside — be careful. A friend in cybersecurity got a call: “The agents we built are DDOSing our customer.” She said shut it off. “I CAN'T shut it off, why would I be calling you?” Powerful AND needs guardrails. Especially in med device.

Three Moves: Problem → Strategy → People

From 400+ manufacturers, these three moves consistently drive results. Universal — regardless of industry, equipment age, or starting point.

1

Start with the problem

There's no AI tool for a bad process. Before you buy anything — before you even look at tools — answer one question: what problem are you solving, and what line in the P&L are you going to move?

Be specific. To actually move a line in the P&L, something in the real world needs to change. Someone needs to take a different action. A process needs to run differently. What exactly will be different?

Start with the problem. Then look at the tools you already have. Often the tool isn't the problem — it's how the work gets done around it. If the process is broken, AI just breaks it faster and more confidently.

Do a disciplined inventory of your workflows:

  • What is the actual job to be done? Not the tool — the work.
  • Prioritize: which workflows benefit most from AI? Use a simple 2x2 — impact vs. feasibility.
  • Pick the ones that impact multiple teams, so everyone has an incentive to work together.
The point isn't the AI solution. It's to redesign how you do the work. Work backwards from the real-world change — then find the right tool.
2

Build your strategy and data foundation

Prioritize both ROI and cultural use cases. Garbage in, poison out — AI doesn't just reflect bad data, it confidently acts on it. You need the right inputs: clean, continuous, real-time data from the machines that make your products.

The answer: Carbon in, diamonds out. Get the right inputs — clean, continuous, real-time data from the machines that make your products. That's the carbon. AI turns it into diamonds.

The simplest version: every machine uses electricity. That electrical draw IS the machine's heartbeat — running, stopped, idling, cycling, abnormal. Universal language of every machine ever made.

For med device: The QMSR requires quality systems grounded in objective evidence. Real-time machine data IS that evidence.

3

Put people at the center

Ask your team what they hate doing. That list is your AI roadmap. The most successful companies treat this as a people and process problem, not a technology problem.

Start with what they hate: Go to your team and ask: "Give me three things you HATE to do." Don't frame it as AI. Just ask. Rank and stack. That list is your AI roadmap.

  • Pick 1-2 hero use cases with clear, defined ROI
  • AND 1-2 cultural use cases that get everyone using AI in ways that are easy and expected
  • If you layer AI ON TOP of what people are already expected to do — and they're already stretched — it dies

Invest in mindset, not just tools. Give people a common baseline and language. Roll out gradually. Make it about THEM.

The bar gets higher for everyone. Individual contributors: "Did you get more done? Did you do it better?" Managers: "Your workforce is now humans plus tools. Are you building the right systems to get the right data in?"

Carbon In. Diamonds Out.

Instead of garbage going in and poison coming out — get the RIGHT inputs. Clean, continuous, real-time machine data. That's the carbon. AI turns it into diamonds: real insights, actionable guidance, decisions your team can trust.

Carbon In

Clean, continuous, real-time machine data. The heartbeat of every machine — captured through its electrical draw. Universal. Non-invasive. Air-gapped.

→

Diamonds Out

Actionable intelligence. Guided decisions. Patterns your team can trust. Expertise that scales across every shift, every plant.

Augment → Anticipate → Autonomous

Don't try to go from zero to autonomous. Build your AI strategy in stages. Be intentional about where you are on this progression. Stage-gate it. Don't skip steps.

Augment

AI helps your people do their jobs better. Remove the noisy stuff. Shift summaries, changeover guides, root cause suggestions. This is the easiest win — start here.

→

Anticipate

AI flags what needs attention before you ask. Not "what happened last week" but "what's happening NOW and what to do next." Your GPS, not your rearview mirror.

→

Autonomous

Rules-based agents handling triage. Clear guardrails: approve up to X, anything beyond triggers human intervention. Governance is key — define the escalation path in advance.

What Happens When the Foundation Is Right

Every one of these was built on the same thing: the right problem, the right data, and the right people. When platforms are built right, the people closest to the problems become the solution architects.

Case Study

Johnson & Johnson — 35% Productivity Improvement

J&J makes 80% of the world's sutures. Strong lean foundation, but machines that couldn't be connected through traditional methods. AI bridged old equipment to new intelligence — without touching PLCs, no cybersecurity risk. Team went from gut-feel to data-driven guidance across suture operations.

Full case study details coming soon.

Builder Story

Custom Scheduling App — Built in a Weekend

A manufacturing professional in North Carolina hated uploading 800 work orders in Excel every other week. Using AI coding tools and a real-time data foundation, he built his own scheduling app — hundreds of orders processed in seconds. Then went further: built his own anomaly detection with custom alert thresholds. Five years ago, that's a six-figure consulting project. Today: one person, one weekend.

Builder Story

Co-Manufacturer Map — Built in Hours

Customer managing production across multiple co-manufacturers — different companies, no shared visibility. Using AI coding tools and a secure API, they built a live production map across every co-manufacturer. Not because the coding was easy. Because the data foundation was already there.

Builder Story

Sales Meets Production Truth

A CRO needed to see which jobs were most labor-intensive, where to charge more, where the trends were going. By overlaying sales data on real-time production data, the team grounded pricing, capacity planning, and sales strategy in machine truth — not estimates.

Builder Story

Digital PDCA for Steel

Built a digital Plan-Do-Check-Act system for one of the largest steel manufacturers in the world. The CI cycle every lean practitioner knows — now powered by real-time data instead of whiteboards and sticky notes.

When platforms are built right — API-first, extensible — the people closest to the problems become the solution architects.

The Experience Behind This Playbook

Everything in this playbook comes from working with 400+ manufacturers across five continents — from mid-market companies to Johnson & Johnson, Hershey, U.S. Steel, GE Aerospace, Coca-Cola FEMSA, and Kimberly-Clark.

Guidewheel — the first scalable way to bring AI to the factory floor

We found a way to read the “heartbeat” of every machine through its electrical signature — non-invasive, air-gapped, cybersecurity de-risked. 2.5 minutes to connect a machine. The oldest one connected: built in 1935. No open-heart surgery on your equipment. No PLC access. No OT network exposure.

That heartbeat becomes the data foundation for everything: real-time visibility, guided actions, AI-powered insights. Across our customer base: 1.4X average productivity improvement (third-party survey).

400+
manufacturers
1.4X
avg productivity gain
2.5 min
per machine install
5
continents

Simple beats complex. Now beats later. Start with one machine, one line, prove the value, then scale. Crawl, walk, run. The playbook in this session is universal — it works regardless of whether you use Guidewheel, another platform, or build your own. The principles are the same: right problem, right data, right people.

The Numbers That Matter

<1%
of factory equipment globally is connected to the cloud
Industry estimates
70%
of manufacturers still collect data manually
Manufacturing Leadership Council
30%+
of margin lost to running blind
300+ expert interviews
$17-26B
annual cost of quality in med device
McKinsey
2.1M
manufacturing jobs unfilled by 2030
Deloitte
96%
increase in FDA warning letters (FY 2024)
FDA / Complizen
35%
productivity improvement at J&J suture operations
Guidewheel / J&J

The Operating Leverage Math

A $100M med device operation. Bottleneck lines at 55% utilization.

You move them to 65%. What happens?

Before
Costs $90M
$10M
Revenue: $100M
10% margin
After
Costs $95M barely moves
$23M PROFIT
Revenue: $118M
19.5% margin
Revenue +18%
Costs +6%
Profit +130%

Same machines. Same people. Same building.
The extra revenue drops almost straight to the bottom line — because your fixed costs don't move.

Regulatory alert: The QMSR took effect February 2, 2026 — replacing 21 CFR Part 820 and harmonizing with ISO 13485:2016. The FDA is now using AI tools (ELSA) to analyze complaint data, adverse events, and inspection history to prioritize inspections. A strong, real-time data foundation isn't just good practice — it's a regulatory advantage.

Your Monday Morning

Four things you can do this week. Whether you're on the plant floor, in engineering, in quality, in the C-suite, or anywhere in between. No budget required. No IT ticket. No vendor call.

The biggest predictor of whether AI succeeds in your organization is whether YOU — the leaders — are using it yourselves.

Key Ideas from This Session

AI Tools to Try Today

Free or low-cost tools available right now. Start experimenting. The biggest predictor of success is whether the leaders use AI themselves.

AI isn't your competitor.
Your competitor using AI is.

The factory down the road running the same machines, quoting the same jobs, serving the same customers — if they can see their floor in real time and you can't, they're not just faster. They're winning your next contract.

Innovators
Early Adopters
Early Majority
Late Majority
Laggards
Be here. You don't need to be first — you need to be fast. Fast follower is a sprint, not a stroll.

The window between early adopter and late majority is compressing faster than any tech shift in history. While you're planning, your competitors are deploying. The gap between “evaluating” and “behind” shrinks every month.

The Fastest Technology Adoption in History

% of U.S. adults adopting each technology — years since mass-market launch

0% 20% 40% 60% 80% 100% 0 2 4 6 8 10 Years Since Mass-Market Launch Electricity PC Internet Smartphone projected WE ARE HERE 55% in just 3 years Gen AI

What took the internet a decade, AI did in three years.

ChatGPT reached 100 million users in 2 months. Instagram took 2.5 years. Nothing has ever moved this fast.

88%
of enterprises adopt AI
But <7% have scaled it. The gap between trying and transforming is the opportunity.
22%
of blue-collar workers
Already use GenAI. This isn’t just a white-collar revolution.
56%
unsure if ERP is ready
Manufacturers know AI is coming — most don’t have the data foundation.

Sources: NBER / Federal Reserve (2024 & 2025), McKinsey State of AI (2025), Our World in Data, UBS, Deloitte

“I constantly see people rise in life who are not the smartest, sometimes not even the most diligent, but they are learning machines.”
— Charlie Munger

Carbon in. Diamonds out.
Problem → Strategy → People.
The foundation is the strategy.

“I can't control the wind or the waves, but I can learn to become an awesome surfer.”

Ask a question

AI advisor grounded in this session's frameworks

Ask anything about applying AI in your manufacturing operation. The advisor knows the frameworks from this session and will tailor advice to your specific industry.

Lauren Dunford

CEO & Co-Founder, Guidewheel

Lauren Dunford is the Co-Founder and CEO of Guidewheel, a World Economic Forum Technology Pioneer, TED speaker, and regular speaker at Davos and Stanford. She believes how we make things matters. A leading voice on “physical AI,” Lauren is bringing intelligence to the machines that power the real economy. Backed by top investors and scaling rapidly across five continents, Guidewheel already helps 400+ manufacturers—including Johnson & Johnson, Hershey, and Cargill—boost productivity by up to 2X while cutting energy costs and emissions by 15-20%.

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Booth 4515
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info@guidewheel.com
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guidewheel.com